Professor Helmut Norpoth Predicts Trump Win in US Election

By -
FROM: http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-election-professor-claims-hes-developed-a-model-that-predicts-donald-trump-will-win/news-story/43649f719189b8da7a55ab5b1f256fb2

DONALD Trump is behind in most polls, but one veteran New York prognosticator still predicts he will win come election day.

“I think he was the strongest candidate in the primaries and that he will prevail,” Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at New York’s SUNY Stony Brook, told The New York Post, even as the RealClearPolitics average shows the Republican candidate trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton by 6.1 percentage points.

Professor Norpoth developed a model that, applied retroactively in earlier races, would have correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912 — with the exception of 2000, when predicted winner Al Gore barely lost to George W. Bush.

The model looks at which of the candidates performed better in the primaries and caucuses and concludes that the stronger performer there will enter the White House
While the political ground has shifted dramatically since Professor Norpoth first made his call, he’s not budging on the outcome.

“The model predicted a Trump win in February and nothing has changed since then. Whatever happens in the real world doesn’t affect the model,” he said.


----------------------------

OUTCOME

 Update Nov 2016:  Donald Trump Wins

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

On Forest Fenn Treasure

By -
Spiritual woman Pam Shetron claims she knows the solution to Forrest Fenn's riddle on buried treasure. FROM: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/woman-claims-she-s-solved-forrest-fenn-riddle/article_ca8a24f4-fe87-5602-8c24-af3b4d3882e8.html Pam Shetron, who has published her interpretation of Fenn’s poem on a website, said Fenn is a hero and has cleverly taught people about faith and what’s important in life — that the search, the friendships and the path are more important than money and physical riches. She said the poem leads to the Christ of the Mines Shrine in Silverton, Colo., but there is no treasure box at that location — just silent, peaceful spirituality. “This is a spiritual journey Mr. Fenn is taking us on. It’s about faith,” she wrote on her blog June 23. “You can’t see faith, but you may have it. You have faith the chest you never saw is out there somewhere north of Santa Fe. Seeing is not always believing. Have faith in all you can not see, but choo
Read more

Australian Bureau of Statistics statement on census privacy

By -
FROM: http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/census-day-is-about-to-get-a-lot-more-personal/news-story/15f2d7b141ce6818cd1d3687e34d4f95 ... The ABS responded to the furore with another statement on its website by statistician David Kalisch. “The ABS never has and never will release identifiable Census data,” Mr Kalisch said. In response to media reports that raised concerns that privacy legislation could be changed to remove existing protections, he said: “Privacy of data collected is a fundamental pillar of an official statistical system. In Australia these protections have existed since the foundation of the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 1905. This will not change.”
Read more