Professor Helmut Norpoth Predicts Trump Win in US Election
FROM: http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-election-professor-claims-hes-developed-a-model-that-predicts-donald-trump-will-win/news-story/43649f719189b8da7a55ab5b1f256fb2 DONALD Trump is behind in most polls, but one veteran New York prognosticator still predicts he will win come election day. “I think he was the strongest candidate in the primaries and that he will prevail,” Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at New York’s SUNY Stony Brook, told The New York Post, even as the RealClearPolitics average shows the Republican candidate trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton by 6.1 percentage points. Professor Norpoth developed a model that, applied retroactively in earlier races, would have correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912 — with the exception of 2000, when predicted winner Al Gore barely lost to George W. Bush. The model looks at which of the candidates performed better in the primaries and caucuses and concludes that the str